Richard Michael
DeanoHarmoShow Us Your Tips - AFL, July 13-15
July 12th 2007 00:49
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St Kilda v Adelaide
Telstra Dome, Friday 7:40pm
It's been a season to forget for St Kilda. Injuries and form have reduced the team from finals contenders to also-rans; and time is running out for the Saints if they are to have any impact on finals calculations this season. The time couldn't be worse for them to take on an Adelaide side that last week turned on their best form for the season to demolish Hawthorn. Ominously, big names Riccuito, McLeod, Edwards and Goodwin were among the Crows' best; and with them back in form it sends a signal the Crows will be a hard side to beat. Even with the home ground advantage, St Kilda won't have the firepower to make an impact - Crows easily.
Geelong v Collingwood
MCG, Saturday 2:10pm
Will it be Collingwood that finally breaks the Cats' winning run? It's a distinct possibility. The Magpies have defied expectations of doom and gloom this season to comfortably maintain their position in the top 8. Young guns such as Dale Thomas are leading the way, building the Collingwood form and ensuring the club can continue winning even without names such as Buckley, Clement and Prestigiacomo. Last week they showed great spirit to come from behind to overcome St Kilda. Meanwhile Geelong are looking for their 10th win in a row, but with such a run can so easily come complacency and a misguided sense of invincibility. Essendon pushed the Cats for 3 quarters last week, and had Hird been able to last the game, the Bombers may have been able to end the streak. With the Magpie spirit soaring, it's an upset but I'll tip Collingwood to kill the Cats' winning streak.
Port Adelaide v West Coast
AAMI Stadium, Saturday 3:10pm
After strong starts to the season, both clubs have lost their way in recent weeks. Port had a high-scoring shootout against the Western Bulldogs, but didn't have the firepower to maintain the form over the whole match. It was even worse for West Coast - unbackable favourites at home against struggling Brisbane, the Eagles were unable to get any momentum going to suffer a stunning upset. One of these sides has to bounce back; but with Judd likely to be a continued absence and with the home ground advantage, it will be Port to get the points.
Essendon v Western Bulldogs
Telstra Dome, Saturday 7:10pm
Both these sides are in similar positions - fighting out for a spot in the top 8, but at the end of the season there will quite likely only be room for one of them. The Bombers were gallant in their fight against Geelong last week, matching it with the ladder leaders for 3 weeks before injuries took their toll And it doesn't get any easier, with a raft of injuries and suspensions keeping the Bombers well below their best. The Bulldogs returned to form with a high-scoring win over Port Adelaide. With Brad Johnson doing great stuff in the midfield, the Bulldogs remain a potent force; and shouldn't have too much trouble shaking off a depleted Essendon side.
Melbourne v Brisbane
Gabba, Saturday 7:10pm
The Demons again take their home game against the Lions to the Sunshine State, in a move that brings much-needed funds to the Melbourne side. But on the field, to give up a home ground advantage, may well be the difference between victory and defeat. Melbourne gave their new coach a first-up win when they outlasted Carlton in a high-scoring thriller; but it was Brisbane who impressed last week when they overcame the odds to overcome West Coast at Subiaco. Back in Brisbane, the Lions should enjoy the momentum and morale boost last week's result would have given them, and cruise to victory.
Sydney v Carlton
SCG, Sunday 1:10pm
The Swans returned to the winning list when they overcame Fremantle at the SCG. It wasn't pretty, but getting a win like that can be a curcuit-breaker to turn around the decline in form that sees the 2005-06 grand finallist still outside the top 8. At home they take on Carlton, a side struggling for form and their pre-season cup premiership seems a long time ago now. Carlton haven't won in Sydney since 1993, and there's nothing in their recent form to suggest the 15-year drought could be about to end here. Carlton will welcome back Brendon Fevola, to give them some much-needed ammunition up forward, but questions still remain about the troubled forward's long-term future with the Blues. It's a tough road trip for Carlton, and victory here looks beyond them.
Hawthorn v Richmond
MCG, Sunday 2:10pm
The Hawks came back to earth with a thump last week, thrashed by Adelaide at AAMI Stadium. For a side that has done so much this year, coming from relative obscurity to a top-4 position, it was a disappointing performance and one that raises questions about their ability to cope in the big games. But fortunately for the Hawks, this isn't a big game and the Tigers are unlikely to have the players to probe the Hawk weaknesses. It's been a disastrous season for Richmond, who remain clear on the bottom of the ladder with just a solitary win after the Kangaroos toyed with them last week. Even with the confidence having taken a dip after the AAMI loss, Hawthorn still look far too strong in this game.
Fremantle v Kangaroos
Subiaco Oval, Sunday 4:40pm
The Dockers have been unable to build on the progress they made in 2006, going backwards this year to languish well outside the top 8. In tricky conditions in Sydney last week they were never in the hunt, adding further to the doom and gloom around the club. Meanwhile the Kangaroos are hopping along quite nicely, with Drew Petrie enjoying a purple patch in the forward line and the club predicted to be battlers instead holding on to a position in the 8. It's always a dangerous call to tip against the Dockers at Subiaco, but there's nothing in the Dockers' form that suggests they are good enough to overcome a top 8 side, and plenty in the Kangaroos' form that suggests the Shinboner spirit is alive and well. It will be tight, but the Kangaroos should win here.
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