Adam Bailey
DeanoHarmoShow Us Your Tips - AFL, June 8-11
June 7th 2007 05:59
Category: No Category
AFL
Essendon v West Coast (Telstra Dome, Friday 7:30pm)
Three wins in a row sees the Bombers back into the top 8, but it’s been a lucky rise for the Bombers. Apart from the well-documented boundary line incident in the leadup to Mark McVeigh’s last goal, there were also several dicey in-the-back frees that disallowed Barry Hall certain goals; and at the end Amon Buchanan’s hit just shaved the post. The week before, the Bombers were also saved after a free was paid against Matthew Richardson. Does luck run in threes? The Bombers will need plenty of it against a well-drilled Eagles lineup with Daniel Kerr returning to the side this week. But with the home ground advantage and confidence on the rise, the Bombers will have the edge to just fall over the line by another small margin.
Hawthorn v Sydney (MCG, Saturday 2:00pm)
I’ll have to admit I’ve under-estimated the Hawks this season. But the football they have played has been sensational, and some genuine rising stars are coming through the ranks. This week they face a test against a Swans side yet to hit their best form, and still reeling after a tight loss to Essendon last week. Paul Roos has made some very public comments about umpiring – will this have any subliminal effect on the officials’ decisions in this match? I don’t think so, and more likely the umpiring is having a distracting effect on the Swans’ preparations. At the MCG, the Hawks will continue their winning run here.
Carlton v Port Adelaide (Telstra Dome, Saturday 7:00pm)
Carlton returned to the winning list on Sunday, with a thrilling 10-point win over the Western Bulldogs in a high-scoring shootout. Without Fevola having a big impact, Matthew Lappin returned to form in style with a bag of 5; and he will need to continue his form here. This week the Blues take on Port Adelaide. Three disastrous losses in a row have seen the Power tumble from ladder leaders to out of the top 8, and too many of their big-name players who started the season well have fallen away in recent weeks. The likely loss of Salopek is another blow for the Power. Confidence is a big thing, and the Blues may have just re-discovered theirs. Carlton to win here.
Brisbane v Western Bulldogs (Gabba, Saturday 7:00pm)
Much of the interest in this match will be on Jason Akermanis’ return to Brisbane, this time wearing opposition colours. It will be interesting to see what sort of reaction the outspoken former Lion will get from the Brisbane crowd; but hopefully most will remember the many years of solid service he gave the club during their golden era. Both sides come into this match with form worries. The Bulldogs kicked 19 goals last week, but were unable to hold out the Carlton offense in a high-scoring shootout. Meanwhile Brisbane led all night against the winless Richmond but couldn’t hang on when it mattered and were forced to settle for a draw. For all the Bulldogs’ form woes, at least they have been able to build a competitive score; and that factor alone should be enough to get the visitors the points in this game.
Adelaide v Geelong (AAMI Stadium, Sunday 1:00pm)
The Crows return home for this match with their tails between their legs, after being the first side to go down to Melbourne last weekend. The Crows were lamentable during the second quarter, and despite a late fightback were never in the contest. The one positive for the Crows is that Mark Ricciuto got through the match unscathed, and will be better for the experience. But this week’s opponents are Geelong, who visited Adelaide only 2 weeks ago and returned victorious over the Power in that trip. The trip to AAMI is one that has worried the Cats in the past, but this Geelong side has been playing inspired football in recent weeks; dominating every team that has taken them on. The Cats are on the crest of a wave, and it won’t be Adelaide that beats them – Geelong easily.
St Kilda v Kangaroos (Telstra Dome, Sunday 2:00pm)
The Saints were tipped pre-season to be contenders in 2007, but they have under-performed this year. Decimated by injuries and down on confidence, the Saints were no match for Geelong in their last start. This week, their opponents will be the Kangaroos, whose inspired winning streak came to an abrupt end when they were swept aside by West Coast in the last quarter at Subiaco last week. Which side will be able to regroup for this match? With Riewoldt and Koschitzke beginning to find some semblance of form, and the emotion which has guided the Kangaroos thus far fading away with last week’s loss, it’s now or never for the Saints to deliver. St Kilda to take the points here.
Fremantle v Richmond (Subiaco, Sunday 4:30pm)
The Dockers went down to Collingwood in Melbourne last week, but by no means disgraced themselves. With big Sandilands dominating the ruck contests, and Pavlich and Haselby returning to form, Fremantle for much of the game looked in a position to potentially snatch an upset; and although it wasn’t to be on that occasion it’s been a welcome return to form for a team that were pre-season tipped as title contenders. Meanwhile Richmond remain winless, but at least salvaged 2 premiership points last week when a late goal from Kane Pettifer enabled them to sneak a draw against Brisbane. But it’s back to the House of Pain at Subiaco – not many Victorian teams go over there and return with the points. It’s hard to see struggling Richmond defy that trend – Freo comfortably.
Melbourne v Collingwood (MCG, Monday 2:00pm)
The annual Queen’s Birthday blockbuster should see a massive crowd on hand. The Demons recorded their first win of the season last week, turning back the clock to 2006 form to record a stirring victory over Adelaide. But this match will be tough against a Collingwood side that will need this win to maintain their position in the top 4. Even with the Demons having some confidence on the board, Collingwood have too many guns and should run away with this match by a large margin.
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